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    Without overstating it, this really was the best season I have had as a fan of the Ottawa Senators.

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    Written on Saturday, 25 May 2013 00:13
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Tuesday, 17 July 2012 14:00

Tom Says...

The dog days of summer are upon us. With a few months to go before any meaningful hockey activities resume, we hockey crazed fans have nothing but time. Nothing to do but wait...and endlessly speculate about the upcoming season.

With the Free Agency madness behind us and the excitement of the Draft wearing off, most Sens fans will start to let their minds wander. Did we draft the right guy? Did we do enough to solidify our team? How will the lines shake out for next season? IS ALFIE COMING BACK?

All valid questions.

The Sens had a great draft yet again, nabbing Cody Ceci with the 15th selection in the first round. This was a move that needed to be made after the Rundblad-Turris trade as Ceci fits the bill as the dynamic blue-chip defensive prospect the Sens had been looking for.

Free Agency came and went with the Senators making a few moves to fill the vacancies left by guys like Matt Carkner, Zenon Konopka and Filip Kuba. Out with the old and in with the new. Guillaume Latendresses, Mike Lundin and Marc Methot were all brought in to bolster the Sens lineup in a few areas where they were lacking last season. Although they aren’t the flashiest names these three guys all help to fill some major spots on the Sens depth chart.

Guillaume Latendresse is a low risk signing that could prove to be a great move should he be able to stay healthy for a significant period of time. Latendresse has shown flashes of serious goal scoring ability and will have ample opportunity to put the puck in the net possibly playing alongside a great playmaker like Kyle Turris. Lundin is a solid bottom pairing defensive defenseman and could prove to be a great partner for Chris Phillips. Methot is a shutdown defenceman who will almost certainly be paired with Erik Karlsson next season.

I’ve heard a lot of talk that the Senators didn’t do enough to improve the team for the upcoming season and in many cases I tend to agree.

There was a lot of talk from the Senators brass about acquiring a legitimate top six forward who can score 25-30 goals. Latendresse definitely has the ability to score 20+ goals, but I’m not sure he is the impact player most were hoping for. However, there does seem to be a method to the Senators madness.

The team seems to be looking for cheap production rather than breaking the bank looking for a sure thing. Players like Mika Zibanejad, Jakob Silfverberg, Guillaume Latendresse and Peter Regin are most likely going to be in the Ottawa lineup next year.

They will be paid roughly $5.4 million dollars collectively (roughly one Bobby Ryan) coming into the season on entry level deals, or low ball salaries. All four have the ability to produce points at a high level and all of them are looking to prove something.

Personally I think this is a great approach for a team who is pretty unsure about how competitive it truly is. I think most people will agree that Ottawa had an above average season last year where nearly everything went perfectly for them and most players had career years.

The team is undoubtedly looking to improve upon last season and while it would be very tempting for fans and front office staff alike to think that this is the new norm, I’m not sure we can hang our hats on the fact that 1 year into our rebuild we made the playoffs.

Bryan Murray and his team seem to be taking a refreshingly realistic approach to this upcoming season. Inserting cheap production into a lineup that already score the 4th most goals the previous season while shoring up the defensive side of the team with guys like Marc Methot, Mike Lundin and possibly Mark Borowiecki is an excellent strategy for a team trying to figure out who it truly is.

As always, let me know what you think in the comments section, or send me a tweet @TomSENS

Comments   Jump to Last Post

 
+1 #1 SJ21 2012-07-17 13:06
While initially excited about potentially landing a big name I think the approach taken is best in the long term. We have plenty of talented young forwards who will get lots of playing time and a chance to prove themselves. As your pointed out Chirp we will also save valuable money early in the rebuild. I'd much rather watch a talented young team develop and get a chance to see these kids play first hand then take a shortcut through the rebuild like our friends down the highway.......
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0 #2 MethotToMyMadness 2012-07-17 13:07
Been waiting for a new post, good read Tom.

Been reading all the past posts about the NHLPA and Owners, I have a hard time even discussing it. I guess as a fan, I hope they just come to some type of agreement soon, as I don't want to be without NHL Hockey come Oct. But, what I would like to see is an end to all the outlandish contracts we've been seeing lately for guys who statistically don't deserve it. Those contracts are what's making it hard for teams to keep or pursue quality players year in and year out. Something has to give!
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-1 #3 NikoTn 2012-07-17 13:15
This is what I have been saying for a long time. mind you, they did try to get Nash. And if they can't get who they want, then why settle for less.
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0 #4 Sandy 2012-07-17 13:37
The long term contracts can stay.. if teams want to go that route.. but make the low end of the salary has to be within a certain percentage of the high.. so that the cap hit is close to the actual salary. That in itself may change the minds of some of these owners. There will be no pittance at the end to lower the cap hits.. that most of the long term contracts have.
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0 #5 Tcharger 2012-07-17 13:44
I am very excited that minimum Silfverburg has a spot for next season....but don't fool yourselves we did not succeed in our goals this off season

We did not get a bonefide top 6...we got latendresse. So potential to be top 6...or leclaire 2.0

We also did not get a top 4 d...we got Methot, again potential
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0 #6 RUSHRLZ 2012-07-17 13:47
Quoting Sandy:
The long term contracts can stay.. if teams want to go that route.. but make the low end of the salary has to be within a certain percentage of the high.. so that the cap hit is close to the actual salary. That in itself may change the minds of some of these owners. There will be no pittance at the end to lower the cap hits.. that most of the long term contracts have.


Well I believe in the leagues first proposal, salary + cap hit must be consistent throughout the term of any contract. If a guy makes 30M for 3 years, then it's 10M per year, it's that simple.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
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-2 #7 Tcharger 2012-07-17 13:48
I also anticipate we take a step back this season, and maybe management does too, which is why they did very minimalistic moves.
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+1 #8 chadillac 2012-07-17 13:51
Quoting Tcharger:
I am very excited that minimum Silfverburg has a spot for next season....but don't fool yourselves we did not succeed in our goals this off season

We did not get a bonefide top 6...we got latendresse. So potential to be top 6...or leclaire 2.0

We also did not get a top 4 d...we got Methot, again potential

Did we lose a top 6 player? I agree we lost a top 4 D in Kuba, but Methot is a suitable replacement. Remember when everyone wanted to run Kuba out of town? We're in good shape.
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0 #9 RUSHRLZ 2012-07-17 13:52
Quoting Tcharger:
I am very excited that minimum Silfverburg has a spot for next season....but don't fool yourselves we did not succeed in our goals this off season

We did not get a bonefide top 6...we got latendresse. So potential to be top 6...or leclaire 2.0

We also did not get a top 4 d...we got Methot, again potential


I love our team, I love the work ethic, last year was a fantastically fun roller coaster... and I agree with Tom in that we probably overachieved a bit.

That being said, as we were discussing earlier relating to 9MM, he is probably better suited to a second line role. Don't kid ourselves, teams can always make due bumping someone up a line or juggling things around, but we are a team with only one true top line guy at this point and that is Spezza.

Alfie, Turris, 9MM, Latendresse... these guys are all excellent second line guys but outside of that we just have the rookie factor. I'm as excited about Silf and Stone as anyone, but to expect those sort of "1 game of experience" type players to thrive in that role right off the bat is a bit preposterous.

Yep our current squad is:
1 first liner
5 - 7 strong line two candidates
Roughly 20 it feels like great bottom six guys.

Something has got to give at some point, and if we have Alfie back for 1-2 more seasons we may as well try as hard as frigging possible to shore up that first line...
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0 #10 Tcharger 2012-07-17 13:59
I agree a team can make due bumping 1 guy up a line...not 5-6 guys.
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0 #11 The Apostle 2012-07-17 14:00
Quoting Tcharger:
I am very excited that minimum Silfverburg has a spot for next season....but don't fool yourselves we did not succeed in our goals this off season

We did not get a bonefide top 6...we got latendresse. So potential to be top 6...or leclaire 2.0

We also did not get a top 4 d...we got Methot, again potential


Latendresse - mainly agree
Methot - mainly disagree
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0 #12 Tcharger 2012-07-17 14:04
I agree Methot is much more likely to meet the potential and be what we need but to say it is 100% that he will successfully slot in with Karlsson is a bit homerish.

I would almost love to see Cowen/Karlsson together as I am pretty sure they will be together for ages
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0 #13 NikoTn 2012-07-17 14:04
Quoting The Apostle:
Quoting Tcharger:
I am very excited that minimum Silfverburg has a spot for next season....but don't fool yourselves we did not succeed in our goals this off season

We did not get a bonefide top 6...we got latendresse. So potential to be top 6...or leclaire 2.0

We also did not get a top 4 d...we got Methot, again potential


Latendresse - mainly agree
Methot - mainly disagree


You'd pay Foligno the money CBJ is paying him? No way.
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+1 #14 Alcatraz 2012-07-17 14:06
Quoting NikoTn:
Quoting The Apostle:
Quoting Tcharger:
I am very excited that minimum Silfverburg has a spot for next season....but don't fool yourselves we did not succeed in our goals this off season

We did not get a bonefide top 6...we got latendresse. So potential to be top 6...or leclaire 2.0

We also did not get a top 4 d...we got Methot, again potential


Latendresse - mainly agree
Methot - mainly disagree


You'd pay Foligno the money CBJ is paying him? No way.


I would, cause its actual market value for what he brings. Find me a better player not named Cory Perry who scored as many goals/points and tallied as many PIMS as Foligno.

That being said Methot is a great top 4 dman. Regardless if he plays with karlsson or not, Methot will be logging top 4 minutes

Edit: add in Scotty Hartnell in thqat category as well
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+1 #15 Tcharger 2012-07-17 14:07
I do not believe Foligno was moved due to salary demands considering what he signed for.
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0 #16 Alcatraz 2012-07-17 14:18
Mike Brophy column today: Great shot at Bruce the Buffet

No-trade and no-movement clauses suck the life out of the NHL. Big trades in the NHL used to be commonplace, but with each passing year trade deadline day becomes more and more anti-climactic. For weeks leading up to the deadline we are bombarded with potential deals that could take place (my pal Bruce Garrioch in Ottawa single-handedly trades half of the league in his daily column) only to see fewer and fewer deals of any significance consummated.
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+1 #17 Sensnation 2012-07-17 14:21
Interesting read, but I disagree with a lot of the statements being made. I think Methot is far from being a sure thing to slot next to Karlsson this season. I really don't think he'll be able to keep up with him.

I also disagree that the Murray's method is to use cheap production. They were definitely looking for a Q4Q trade so that they wouldn't have to go that route. They just haven't been able to do one yet. That is still their desire though if any of the available stars will ever agree to come here.
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0 #18 Sensarmygeneral 2012-07-17 14:21
Quoting Tcharger:
I do not believe Foligno was moved due to salary demands considering what he signed for.


Agreed something was going on behind the scenes with Nicky, perhaps he was a DRoom issue.
I also agree that while we have made some good depth moves (Methot, Latendresse, Lundin), we should make every attempt to get Alfie that ring should he decide to return.

My gut tells me that Murray (who I continue to read stories about him contacting Alfie) is waiting on that decision before moving forward. We want, better yet NEED Alfie to remain with the team in some capacity after his great career. I have heard his interviews and he has a tremendous amount of hockey sense. He would be great in any capacity from A/Coach-Scout.

I do not think the Sens are done with their moves. I can see Zibby, Weircioch and a goalie (as well as a pick perhaps) being dealt for Ryan. He still needs to move, although once Boston gets word that he is coming to the N East, they may intervene to raise that offers.
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+1 #19 Alcatraz 2012-07-17 14:24
Quoting Sensarmygeneral:
Quoting Tcharger:
I do not believe Foligno was moved due to salary demands considering what he signed for.


Agreed something was going on behind the scenes with Nicky, perhaps he was a DRoom issue.
I also agree that while we have made some good depth moves (Methot, Latendresse, Lundin), we should make every attempt to get Alfie that ring should he decide to return.

My gut tells me that Murray (who I continue to read stories about him contacting Alfie) is waiting on that decision before moving forward. We want, better yet NEED Alfie to remain with the team in some capacity after his great career. I have heard his interviews and he has a tremendous amount of hockey sense. He would be great in any capacity from A/Coach-Scout.

I do not think the Sens are done with their moves. I can see Zibby, Weircioch and a goalie (as well as a pick perhaps) being dealt for Ryan. He still needs to move, although once Boston gets word that he is coming to the N East, they may intervene to raise that offers.


I think it was just quality for queality that happened. We wanted top 4 we had to give up top 6 potential

I can staunchly say that Foligno was definitely not a dressing room issue. The guy busted his balls for thi team and community. He was becoming the face of the Sens foundation after Fisher left. If Foligno wasn't on the ice, he was in the community for various cancer inniatives

In the dressing room, who knows what happens, but I do know he was well liked
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+1 #20 MethotToMyMadness 2012-07-17 14:26
Quoting Alcatraz:
Quoting NikoTn:
Quoting The Apostle:
Quoting Tcharger:
I am very excited that minimum Silfverburg has a spot for next season....but don't fool yourselves we did not succeed in our goals this off season

We did not get a bonefide top 6...we got latendresse. So potential to be top 6...or leclaire 2.0

We also did not get a top 4 d...we got Methot, again potential


Latendresse - mainly agree
Methot - mainly disagree


You'd pay Foligno the money CBJ is paying him? No way.


I would, cause its actual market value for what he brings. Find me a better player not named Cory Perry who scored as many goals/points and tallied as many PIMS as Foligno.

That being said Methot is a great top 4 dman. Regardless if he plays with karlsson or not, Methot will be logging top 4 minutes

Edit: add in Scotty Hartnell in thqat category as well


What is the requirement for PIMS? They are great in Hockey Pools, but on a team who were one of the worst at goals for last year, I'd like us to stay out of the box this season as much as possible. I'd rather have a Patric Hornqvist type of guy who also makes 3M, still get the 25 to 30 goals and stays out of the box.
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+2 #21 Tcharger 2012-07-17 14:27
Uh weren't we near the top in goals for?
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0 #22 Alcatraz 2012-07-17 14:28
BEcause you need grit and the ability to get dirty

Thats why players with high PIMS are good to have. Some of those PIMS are from Foligno's 6 fights. I'm not overly sad he's gone but the kid was useful as hell

Sure he took too many Goalie INterference Penalties, but when you crash the net as much as he did, it opens things up.

Wouldn't take long to see a correlation of a team with a top 6 with players all under 50 pims, to a top 6 with at least 1 or 2 players over 50 pims

Look at cup finalists and you see Richards, Penner, Clarkson
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0 #23 Sensarmygeneral 2012-07-17 14:33
Quoting Alcatraz:
[quote name="Sensarmygeneral"][quote name="Tcharger"]I do n
I can staunchly say that Foligno was definitely not a dressing room issue. The guy busted his balls for thi team and community. He was becoming the face of the Sens foundation after Fisher left. If Foligno wasn't on the ice, he was in the community for various cancer inniatives

In the dressing room, who knows what happens, but I do know he was well liked


Perhaps you're correct, but it seemed as though he was stuck in the line 2.5 role. Not quite second line skill, but too much scoring ability for a third line checking role with 11min per game. I would never question he community service or off ice attitude.

Clb will be good for him. There he is certainly top 6 quality. He seemed lost at times as to his role with the team. I like his energy and his skill set, but some penalties he took were questionable. We had/have a poor relationships with referees in the league. Foligno walked the line at times last season, perhaps BM is trying to remove some of the stigma around the team in the officials eyes and catch a few more breaks.

Now if Karlsson would stop diving.....lol!
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0 #24 Alcatraz 2012-07-17 14:39
I know in Sudbury, his father coached him and pushed him to go all out all the time. In the OHL its easy to do, because you can start dominating without really noticing. Mike pushed him and didn't really bother trying to reign him in. This turned out to be good for him, as he became a 1st rounder

Then he came to Ottawa and we didn't really give him that option. We kept him back for a bit on the bottom lines, and we didn't set a clear role for him. He played top 6-9 minutes but wasn't really used on any special teams. Thats very rare for a forward. Your normally classified as pp guy, pk guy or hybrid. he was none

Then Maclean came in and told him to be that line walking guy, and create own space like in OHL. This is why we saw Foligno become productive

But just like for the Wolves sometimes Foligno has a hard time towing the line because his hockey IQ is not overly through the roof, he just works his ass off

If CLB get him to do that again, but with a more clearly defined offensive role (ie pp guy) I could easily see Foligno getting 20-25 goals and 20-25 assists

Not to say he could have done that here, but I think its in him to do
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-2 #25 Sensarmygeneral 2012-07-17 14:41
Quoting Alcatraz:
I know in Sudbury, his father coached him and pushed him to go all out all the time. In the OHL its easy to do, because you can start dominating without really noticing. Mike pushed him and didn't really bother trying to reign him in. This turned out to be good for him, as he became a 1st rounder

Then he came to Ottawa and we didn't really give him that option. We kept him back for a bit on the bottom lines, and we didn't set a clear role for him. He played top 6-9 minutes but wasn't really used on any special teams. Thats very rare for a forward. Your normally classified as pp guy, pk guy or hybrid. he was none

Then Maclean came in and told him to be that line walking guy, and create own space like in OHL. This is why we saw Foligno become productive

But just like for the Wolves sometimes Foligno has a hard time towing the line because his hockey IQ is not overly through the roof, he just works his ass off

If CLB get him to do that again, but with a more clearly defined offensive role (ie pp guy) I could easily see Foligno getting 20-25 goals and 20-25 assists

Not to say he could have done that here, but I think its in him to do


45pts is hardly top 6 on a contender
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0 #26 The Apostle 2012-07-17 14:42
Quoting MethotToMyMadness:


What is the requirement for PIMS? They are great in Hockey Pools, but on a team who were one of the worst at goals for last year, I'd like us to stay out of the box this season as much as possible. I'd rather have a Patric Hornqvist type of guy who also makes 3M, still get the 25 to 30 goals and stays out of the box.



We scored the 4th most goals last year. How much better do you want us to be?

The fact that we did so well in goals for and so poorly in goals against (24th) is what makes trading a fringe top 6 player (on our team) for a capable defensive player such a smart move.

I liked Foligno but he always left me wanting more from him.

Howevber i would disagree with the concept of him being bad in the dressing room, everything I have read seems to indicate he was very well liked.
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0 #27 Alcatraz 2012-07-17 14:42
Quoting Sensarmygeneral:
Quoting Alcatraz:
I know in Sudbury, his father coached him and pushed him to go all out all the time. In the OHL its easy to do, because you can start dominating without really noticing. Mike pushed him and didn't really bother trying to reign him in. This turned out to be good for him, as he became a 1st rounder

Then he came to Ottawa and we didn't really give him that option. We kept him back for a bit on the bottom lines, and we didn't set a clear role for him. He played top 6-9 minutes but wasn't really used on any special teams. Thats very rare for a forward. Your normally classified as pp guy, pk guy or hybrid. he was none

Then Maclean came in and told him to be that line walking guy, and create own space like in OHL. This is why we saw Foligno become productive

But just like for the Wolves sometimes Foligno has a hard time towing the line because his hockey IQ is not overly through the roof, he just works his ass off

If CLB get him to do that again, but with a more clearly defined offensive role (ie pp guy) I could easily see Foligno getting 20-25 goals and 20-25 assists

Not to say he could have done that here, but I think its in him to do


45pts is hardly top 6 on a contender


I'm confused where did I say that?
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0 #28 Sensarmygeneral 2012-07-17 14:46
Quoting Alcatraz:
Quoting Sensarmygeneral:
Quoting Alcatraz:
I know in Sudbury, his father coached him and pushed him to go all out all the time. In the OHL its easy to do, because you can start dominating without really noticing. Mike pushed him and didn't really bother trying to reign him in. This turned out to be good for him, as he became a 1st rounder

Then he came to Ottawa and we didn't really give him that option. We kept him back for a bit on the bottom lines, and we didn't set a clear role for him. He played top 6-9 minutes but wasn't really used on any special teams. Thats very rare for a forward. Your normally classified as pp guy, pk guy or hybrid. he was none

Then Maclean came in and told him to be that line walking guy, and create own space like in OHL. This is why we saw Foligno become productive

But just like for the Wolves sometimes Foligno has a hard time towing the line because his hockey IQ is not overly through the roof, he just works his ass off

If CLB get him to do that again, but with a more clearly defined offensive role (ie pp guy) I could easily see Foligno getting 20-25 goals and 20-25 assists

Not to say he could have done that here, but I think its in him to do


45pts is hardly top 6 on a contender


I'm confused where did I say that?


My initial comment dealt with the Sens moving him due to his inability to be the 2nd liner they require and removing the damaging penalties which create stigma. I alluded to the fact that their might have been a D room/discipline problem (I have no idea, just speculating).
I got the impression you were in defence of him as a top 6. If that is the case, the potential that you gave him 20-25g and 20-25a hardly qualifies him as 2nd line material.

If I misunderstood, my apologies. Just trying to generate some conversation in an otherwise boring time for hockey fans.
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0 #29 Alcatraz 2012-07-17 14:47
Well I do believe he is a top 6 talent. See below

some "contenders last year" and their top 6 forwards pts

Pittsburgh:
Malkin-109//neal 81//kunitz 61//dupuis 59//staal 58//sullivan 48

Vancouver:
sedin 81//sedin 67//burrows 52//+kesler 49//higgins 43

Boston:
seguin 67//bergeron 64//krejcy 62//lucic 61//marchand 55//peverly 42

So considering Foligno wasn't a top 6 mainstay I would say his 46 pts are top 6 production

Edit: lets look at cup finalists also

Los Angeles:
Kopitar 76//williams 59//brown 54//richards 44//stoll 21//voynov 20

New Jersey:
kovalchuk 83//elias 78//parise 68//henrique 51//clarkson 46//sykora 44
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0 #30 MethotToMyMadness 2012-07-17 14:51
Quoting Alcatraz:
BEcause you need grit and the ability to get dirty

Thats why players with high PIMS are good to have. Some of those PIMS are from Foligno's 6 fights. I'm not overly sad he's gone but the kid was useful as hell

Sure he took too many Goalie INterference Penalties, but when you crash the net as much as he did, it opens things up.

Wouldn't take long to see a correlation of a team with a top 6 with players all under 50 pims, to a top 6 with at least 1 or 2 players over 50 pims

Look at cup finalists and you see Richards, Penner, Clarkson


I agree we have to have grit, but we still do. With Foligno's 15 G's, 47 points, 124 PIMs gone we will rely on Neil who had 13 G's, 28 points, 178 PIMs. And Zack Smith, who last year picked up 14 G's, 26 points and 98 PIMs and those numbers should increase.
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0 #31 Alcatraz 2012-07-17 14:53
Quoting MethotToMyMadness:
Quoting Alcatraz:
BEcause you need grit and the ability to get dirty

Thats why players with high PIMS are good to have. Some of those PIMS are from Foligno's 6 fights. I'm not overly sad he's gone but the kid was useful as hell

Sure he took too many Goalie INterference Penalties, but when you crash the net as much as he did, it opens things up.

Wouldn't take long to see a correlation of a team with a top 6 with players all under 50 pims, to a top 6 with at least 1 or 2 players over 50 pims

Look at cup finalists and you see Richards, Penner, Clarkson


I agree we have to have grit, but we still do. With Foligno's 15 G's, 47 points, 124 PIMs gone we will rely on Neil who had 13 G's, 28 points, 178 PIMs. And Zack Smith, who last year picked up 14 G's, 26 points and 98 PIMs and those numbers should increase.


But you can't place those two players on the same line as a alfie or spezza or michalek, they would be grossly out of place

alfie/turris were arguably at their best with foligno on the line

Again I'm not saying we shouldn't have traded him, but he was valuable, is valuable and for sure worth the salary he got
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0 #32 MethotToMyMadness 2012-07-17 14:53
Quoting The Apostle:
Quoting MethotToMyMadness:


What is the requirement for PIMS? They are great in Hockey Pools, but on a team who were one of the worst at goals for last year, I'd like us to stay out of the box this season as much as possible. I'd rather have a Patric Hornqvist type of guy who also makes 3M, still get the 25 to 30 goals and stays out of the box.



We scored the 4th most goals last year. How much better do you want us to be?

The fact that we did so well in goals for and so poorly in goals against (24th) is what makes trading a fringe top 6 player (on our team) for a capable defensive player such a smart move.

I liked Foligno but he always left me wanting more from him.

Howevber i would disagree with the concept of him being bad in the dressing room, everything I have read seems to indicate he was very well liked.


I meant Goals Against, not for. That's my bad. My point behind it is we spent a major amount of time in the box last year, which allowed for a good majority of those goals against us.
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0 #33 Sensarmygeneral 2012-07-17 15:00
I agree that some teams have 2nd line talent that scores in the 40-50pt range.
However I believe Kesler and Vignealt have had recent issues. Peverly played 57gms and refresh my memory, was Sullivan re-signed by the Pens, and Staal was traded. 55-60pts is more than 45, so I didn't bother with those ones.
We also do not have a 80pt player on the second line to offset the low production like a Penguin team (when Sid is healthy) Also, if we have a team 2.33GAA (see Boston), we could get away with 45pt 2nd liners.
Thanks for the comments, gave me something to chat about, boy do I miss the game in these lng months.
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0 #34 chadillac 2012-07-17 15:02
Quoting Alcatraz:
Well I do believe he is a top 6 talent. See below

some "contenders last year" and their top 6 forwards pts

Pittsburgh:
Malkin-109//neal 81//kunitz 61//dupuis 59//staal 58//sullivan 48

Vancouver:
sedin 81//sedin 67//burrows 52//+kesler 49//higgins 43

Boston:
seguin 67//bergeron 64//krejcy 62//lucic 61//marchand 55//peverly 42

So considering Foligno wasn't a top 6 mainstay I would say his 46 pts are top 6 production

Edit: lets look at cup finalists also

Los Angeles:
Kopitar 76//williams 59//brown 54//richards 44//stoll 21//voynov 20

New Jersey:
kovalchuk 83//elias 78//parise 68//henrique 51//clarkson 46//sykora 44

I have to agree 100%. He may not be your favourite top 6 guy, but he is definitely top 6. People seem to realize that this is a 30 team league, so the "he's not top 6", or "not a top 4" argument often falls flat on its face cause people don't consider the facts when making their arguments.

30 team league x 3 forward positions x 2 lines = 144

Foligno was ranked 110th amongst fowards - definitely top 6.

However, you'd want a guy that would help you make the playoffs. 16 teams x 3 forward positions x 2 lines. You want a guy that finishes 96th or higher in production. Foligno just misses, but consider his physical play, and you could make an argument for top 6.
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0 #35 Alcatraz 2012-07-17 15:07
@chadillac

very true, and sure @sensarmygenera l you bring up valid points about the offsetting stuff but thruth be told, last year without Foligno I don't think we would have been as good. We didn't have many options in the top 6 so he helped out huge

And I only used Vancouver/Bosto n/Pittsburgh as examples because you talked about contenders. I don't think anyone in the league would argue with you in saying we aren't there yet. So getting 46 for Foligno when we aren't there yet and don't have the talent for him to play with is impresisve

We needed a top 4 dman and Foligno got us that
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0 #36 Sensarmygeneral 2012-07-17 15:08
Quoting Alcatraz:
@chadillac

very true, and sure @sensarmygeneral you bring up valid points about the offsetting stuff but thruth be told, last year without Foligno I don't think we would have been as good. We didn't have many options in the top 6 so he helped out huge

And I only used Vancouver/Boston/Pittsburgh as examples because you talked about contenders. I don't think anyone in the league would argue with you in saying we aren't there yet. So getting 46 for Foligno when we aren't there yet and don't have the talent for him to play with is impresisve

We needed a top 4 dman and Foligno got us that


Agreed, I hope that we can swing a deal for another top 3 though, would love to see Alfie return for a legit run for a cup and I don't think we are that far off.
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0 #37 The Apostle 2012-07-17 15:17
Quoting chadillac:


I have to agree 100%. He may not be your favourite top 6 guy, but he is definitely top 6. People seem to realize that this is a 30 team league, so the "he's not top 6", or "not a top 4" argument often falls flat on its face cause people don't consider the facts when making their arguments.

30 team league x 3 forward positions x 2 lines = 144

Foligno was ranked 110th amongst fowards - definitely top 6.

However, you'd want a guy that would help you make the playoffs. 16 teams x 3 forward positions x 2 lines. You want a guy that finishes 96th or higher in production. Foligno just misses, but consider his physical play, and you could make an argument for top 6.



I don't know in which world 30 x 3 x 2 = 144 but whatever.

I don't think you can be that definite or precise by using stats alone. II could happily counter with the information that Foligno's average TOI last sesason ranked 232nd in the league amongst forwards.

That doesn't take into account things like PK or PP of course which is why it's a misleading stat especially when another stat is that he was the 6th ranked senator forward in average TOI.

Foligno saw plenty of top 6 time and plenty of 3rd line time which indicates to me he wasn't a lock in the top 6 on the senators.

I think he has potential to be a day in/day out top 6 player, but he has a better chance of doing that long term somewhere other than Ottawa.
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0 #38 Spinorama 2012-07-17 15:25
Quoting Alcatraz:
Well I do believe he is a top 6 talent. See below

some "contenders last year" and their top 6 forwards pts

Pittsburgh:
Malkin-109//neal 81//kunitz 61//dupuis 59//staal 58//sullivan 48

Vancouver:
sedin 81//sedin 67//burrows 52//+kesler 49//higgins 43

Boston:
seguin 67//bergeron 64//krejcy 62//lucic 61//marchand 55//peverly 42

So considering Foligno wasn't a top 6 mainstay I would say his 46 pts are top 6 production

Edit: lets look at cup finalists also

Los Angeles:
Kopitar 76//williams 59//brown 54//richards 44//stoll 21//voynov 20

New Jersey:
kovalchuk 83//elias 78//parise 68//henrique 51//clarkson 46//sykora 44


Isn't Voynov a defenseman ? peverly a third liner with Chris Kelly ? not to take anything away from Foligno as it was a career year for him.
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0 #39 Alcatraz 2012-07-17 15:25
@theapostle

I think that's what I'm trying to sell. Foligno can and should be a top 6 forward. Somewhere. Hell that could have been here in ottawa but we needed a top 4 dman more

Foligno is valuable and is being paid accordingly but he was expendable for us which means he fits a need elsewhere on another team
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0 #40 Alcatraz 2012-07-17 15:27
Quoting Spinorama:
Quoting Alcatraz:
Well I do believe he is a top 6 talent. See below

some "contenders last year" and their top 6 forwards pts

Pittsburgh:
Malkin-109//neal 81//kunitz 61//dupuis 59//staal 58//sullivan 48

Vancouver:
sedin 81//sedin 67//burrows 52//+kesler 49//higgins 43

Boston:
seguin 67//bergeron 64//krejcy 62//lucic 61//marchand 55//peverly 42

So considering Foligno wasn't a top 6 mainstay I would say his 46 pts are top 6 production

Edit: lets look at cup finalists also

Los Angeles:
Kopitar 76//williams 59//brown 54//richards 44//stoll 21//voynov 20

New Jersey:
kovalchuk 83//elias 78//parise 68//henrique 51//clarkson 46//sykora 44


Isn't Voynov a defenseman ? peverly a third liner with Chris Kelly ? not to take anything away from Foligno as it was a career year for him.


I agree which just solidifies his 46pt production even more as top 6 talent level. I'm not saying he is similar or better than those players listed but I would argue that on any of the 30 teams in the league they could all use a 46pt guy in the top 6 regardless if its foligno or comparable(clar kson for example)
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0 #41 Sensnation 2012-07-17 15:37
Quoting Sensarmygeneral:


45pts is hardly top 6 on a contender


Riddle me this:
Kopitar 76pts
J Williams 59pts
Brown 54pts
Richards 44pts
Carter 9pts (16gms)
Penner 17pts (65gms)
Gagne 17pts (34gms)

Who is this non contending stanley cup winning team.

This is exactly my point with all the Foligno detractors, you are arguing from a point of falacy. 45pts is easily 2nd line material on most NHL teams, even STANLEY CUP WINNING ones!
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0 #42 Hax 2012-07-17 15:42
Quality post Tom.

It's hard to get too excited about the moves so far but it's not really the team's job to get us excited (not their primary job anyway). It's their job to build a team that can contend for years and maintain a high level of play indefinitely - which will be plenty to be excited about down the line.

While it would have been fun to land Parise or Suter or trade for Nash/Ryan, those things are just not realistic and I'm glad they're not trying to fake it with second tier talent.
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0 #43 Tookie 2012-07-17 15:43
Quoting RUSHRLZ:

I love our team, I love the work ethic, last year was a fantastically fun roller coaster... and I agree with Tom in that we probably overachieved a bit.


A bit...it was the main theme in our entire season.

Smith, Greening, Foligno, Karlsson, Anderson and even Alfie as a 39 year old scoring 27 goals...They all overachieved and I can bet you they wont have the same season again.
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0 #44 Hax 2012-07-17 15:46
And for anyone speaking ill of one Nick Foligno: Please remember he's the guy that knocked Dany Heatley out when he wouldn't stop running his mouth. (At least that's one rumor I choose to believe.)

So even though I loved him as a player anyway, that one fact (rumor) gives him a lifelong pass in my book.

Having said that, I think the trade was still necessary. We need Methot more than we need Foligno. Now, if Foligno finally puts it all together like I think he's capable of that might be a different story. I think he's capable of being a 60-70 point guy that plays with an edge (like Lucic but not lobotomized). He's still far away from that level though and may never get there so the trade seems to be the prudent move.
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0 #45 Sensnation 2012-07-17 15:49
Quoting Hax:
And for anyone speaking ill of one Nick Foligno: Please remember he's the guy that knocked Dany Heatley out when he wouldn't stop running his mouth. (At least that's one rumor I choose to believe.)

So even though I loved him as a player anyway, that one fact (rumor) gives him a lifelong pass in my book.

Having said that, I think the trade was still necessary. We need Methot more than we need Foligno. Now, if Foligno finally puts it all together like I think he's capable of that might be a different story. I think he's capable of being a 60-70 point guy that plays with an edge (like Lucic but not lobotomized). He's still far away from that level though and may never get there so the trade seems to be the prudent move.


Wouldn't it be ironic if Nash ends up staying in Columbus and the surprise line of next season becomes Foligno-Johanse n-Nash
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-4 #46 Tookie 2012-07-17 15:50
Quoting Hax:
And for anyone speaking ill of one Nick Foligno: Please remember he's the guy that knocked Dany Heatley out when he wouldn't stop running his mouth. (At least that's one rumor I choose to believe.)


Dang, lots of people still hating on Heatley, give it a rest folks, he's been gone for 2 years now, get over it already.

You sound like a scorned lover.
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0 #47 RUSHRLZ 2012-07-17 15:52
Quoting Tookie:
Quoting RUSHRLZ:

I love our team, I love the work ethic, last year was a fantastically fun roller coaster... and I agree with Tom in that we probably overachieved a bit.


A bit...it was the main theme in our entire season.

Smith, Greening, Foligno, Karlsson, Anderson and even Alfie as a 39 year old scoring 27 goals...They all overachieved and I can bet you they wont have the same season again.


I don't think any of those guys in particular overachieved drastically are you kidding? Sure we all wonder if EK65 can keep up such a torrid pace two years in a row but to say Anderson and Alfie drastically overachieved are you serious? Smith actually really struggled down the stretch and I hopeful he can be better and have a more consistent and healthier year next season.

Funny how I was agreeing they overachieved "a bit" and no surprise you need to counter that with a "NO we should have sucked and overachieved to insane levels" type of post.

Typical Tookie post, especially considering their achievements lost you a bet. Funny how you already are saying "and I can bet you they won't have the same season again". LOL.
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+4 #48 Hax 2012-07-17 15:57
Quoting Tookie:
Quoting Hax:
And for anyone speaking ill of one Nick Foligno: Please remember he's the guy that knocked Dany Heatley out when he wouldn't stop running his mouth. (At least that's one rumor I choose to believe.)


Dang, lots of people still hating on Heatley, give it a rest folks, he's been gone for 2 years now, get over it already.

You sound like a scorned lover.


Nah just a scorned fan. I see no reason to forgive or forget. And don't misunderstand, I don't waste any time worrying about Dany but when the subject comes up I'm happy to relate one of my favorite rumors (Foligno's right cross). And I am also happy to boo the crap out of him whenever he's bold enough to come to our barn.

But I don't lose sleep over it.
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0 #49 Sensnation 2012-07-17 15:57
Quoting Tookie:
Quoting RUSHRLZ:

I love our team, I love the work ethic, last year was a fantastically fun roller coaster... and I agree with Tom in that we probably overachieved a bit.


A bit...it was the main theme in our entire season.

Smith, Greening, Foligno, Karlsson, Anderson and even Alfie as a 39 year old scoring 27 goals...They all overachieved and I can bet you they wont have the same season again.


Bet? Haha Tookie, no ones going to bet with you after you backed out of having to fulfill your entire losing responsibilitie s.
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0 #50 GreeningTheMonster 2012-07-17 16:00
Quoting Tookie:
Quoting Hax:
And for anyone speaking ill of one Nick Foligno: Please remember he's the guy that knocked Dany Heatley out when he wouldn't stop running his mouth. (At least that's one rumor I choose to believe.)


Dang, lots of people still hating on Heatley, give it a rest folks, he's been gone for 2 years now, get over it already.

You sound like a scorned lover.


Get over it? I always knew u weren't a fan of this team.

Ya everyone will "get over " it alright
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0 #51 Hax 2012-07-17 16:04
Quoting RUSHRLZ:
Typical Tookie post, especially considering their achievements lost you a bet. Funny how you already are saying "and I can bet you they won't have the same season again". LOL.


While I agree all these guys are capable of repeating or even improving on their great years, the fact remains that we can't expect each and every one of them to do so. Some amount of "normalization" is to be expected. Tookie is of course putting the most glass-half-empt y spin on it, but essentially he's right in that we aren't likely to see *all* of these guys repeat/improve.

I think some will but a couple probably won't for various reasons. I think on paper our team is a tiny bit better than last year, but in the end our record might be a bit less due to not as many guys having peak years.

Of course, we could have won 5-10 more games last year without playing much better overall (a lucky bounce here and there etc) so I fully expect/hope that we'll still be very much in the hunt for the playoffs.
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0 #52 RUSHRLZ 2012-07-17 16:05
Tookie has good days and bad days. Let's just say I think he forgot to take the meds this morning.
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+3 #53 boom 2012-07-17 16:17
Quoting RUSHRLZ:
Tookie has good days and bad days. Let's just say I think he forgot to take the meds this morning.

I know that if I forget to take my meds, I tend to lose my train of
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+2 #54 MoeDozer 2012-07-17 16:19
dont think there is any reason to worry about guys having breakout years, again.

spezza will stay the same year after year.
goaltending is the last of our problems.

if milo cant score then guys like latendresse silfverberg regin butler or even stone/zib will get increased playing time to score.

turris and z.smith can only get better from here.


dont need to remind people, we have depth. Not the best depth, but its still something. 1 player goes down to an injury or a slump, we have another eager to get a chance.

the only problem i see is how far karlsson will cary us. My expectations are he will get 55-60point season. some may call that a dissapoitning year, i think its a better thing. I prefer a 60point karlsson over an 80 only because the 60point guy would be way better defensively (see lidstrom).


ive said it before, if we are in trouble by 25games into the season, only then expect a major move coming.
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0 #55 filliam 2012-07-17 16:41
I'm happy the Sens didn't do much. Give the ice time to guys who will play a major role in the future - Zbad, Stone, Silfverberg, and possible others. Also looking forward to seeing Butler and Regin. I had high hopes for them in their rookie seasons but they disappointed last year/got injured. The team is still in a rebuild - when we are contenders, then make the big splash(es).
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0 #56 Mr Hockey 2012-07-17 17:28
Quoting boom:
Quoting RUSHRLZ:
Tookie has good days and bad days. Let's just say I think he forgot to take the meds this morning.

I know that if I forget to take my meds, I tend to lose my train of


Brilliant!
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+2 #57 Spinorama 2012-07-17 17:58
Quoting Sensnation:
Quoting Tookie:
Quoting RUSHRLZ:

I love our team, I love the work ethic, last year was a fantastically fun roller coaster... and I agree with Tom in that we probably overachieved a bit.


A bit...it was the main theme in our entire season.

Smith, Greening, Foligno, Karlsson, Anderson and even Alfie as a 39 year old scoring 27 goals...They all overachieved and I can bet you they wont have the same season again.


Bet? Haha Tookie, no ones going to bet with you after you backed out of having to fulfill your entire losing responsibilities.


I'll bet with Tookster !! Bring it !! Our beloved Sens will have a better year than last year ! What do you want to bet Tooks !?
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-2 #58 Ryan 2012-07-17 21:53
Hey I read that P.J. Axelsson is contemplating a return to the NHL and is supposedly a good friend with Alfie what do you guys think if he decides to play with the sens? Would you want him?
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-2 #59 Sens4Eva 2012-07-17 22:04
I think there have certainly been deals on the table for Murray to pull the trigger on; he's just waiting to completely fleece a desperate team so we don't deplete our assets in anyway. As a whole, the average fan understands we are in a rebuild/retool so there aren't any lofty expectations on us right now. The Murray's are looking to build a solid team down in Bingo to groom our young guns and make sure that the Sens are at least "competitive". However the brass may be overestimating how good we'll actually be, if no solid additions are made we're going to be hard pressed to make the playoffs. The other teams around us are improving while we're remaining stagnant. Murray might be looking ahead to 2013 where we'll have 40 million (yes 40 MILLION) in cap space (assuming the cap stays at 70 mill) and will be looking to add a Perry or Getzlaf/draft high in a very deep draft (due to a poor finish this year). That's honestly the only logical explanation I can think of.
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0 #60 Mat 2012-07-17 22:11
Quoting Ryan:
Hey I read that P.J. Axelsson is contemplating a return to the NHL and is supposedly a good friend with Alfie what do you guys think if he decides to play with the sens? Would you want him?


If PJ was good enough to be in the NHL, he never would have left... I say no thank you.

As for Tom's blog, Regin, Latendresse and Silfverberg will have roster spots but I don't think Zbad will have a full year with the big club. He'll be on a rotation with other BSens players who will have short stints all year long. And if one player should actually stick around for a while longer, perhaps due to an injury, my money would be on Hoffman as having the best chances.

An interesting question I don't hear to many people talking about is our 6 and 7th D.

So far its lining up to be a battle between Lundin, Boro, Wiercioch, Benoit and Gryba. And we know we need to replace toughness so I'm hoping Boro as 6 and rotations amongst the other 4 until one proves to be worthy.
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+1 #61 Paradocs 2012-07-17 22:18
Quoting Sensnation:
Quoting Sensarmygeneral:


45pts is hardly top 6 on a contender


Riddle me this:
Kopitar 76pts
J Williams 59pts
Brown 54pts
Richards 44pts
Carter 9pts (16gms)
Penner 17pts (65gms)
Gagne 17pts (34gms)

Who is this non contending stanley cup winning team.

This is exactly my point with all the Foligno detractors, you are arguing from a point of falacy. 45pts is easily 2nd line material on most NHL teams, even STANLEY CUP WINNING ones!


Last season, only 2 teams had 6 forwards score 45+ points (Phi & Pit). And their 6th forward scored 49 and 48 points respectively.
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0 #62 mr.quincy27 2012-07-17 22:29
the most important question would be "will the season start on time"??
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+2 #63 The Math Police 2012-07-18 00:44
Quoting chadillac:


30 team league x 3 forward positions x 2 lines = 144



F
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0 #64 freebird 2012-07-18 00:46
Quoting Tookie:



Dang, lots of people still hating on Heatley, give it a rest folks, he's been gone for 2 years now, get over it already.


This is something that a welcher would say.
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0 #65 Ryan 2012-07-18 01:10
Quoting The Math Police:
Quoting chadillac:


30 team league x 3 forward positions x 2 lines = 144



F
Actually it's 4 lines so 3 forward positions lw c rw x 4 lines = 12 now x that by 30 and u get 360 forwards that play
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0 #66 Sens4Eva 2012-07-18 03:03
Checked out capgeek and as I suspected Alex Edler is a UFA next year. With the combination of having 40 mill in cap space, Murray's hard-on for Swedes, and Vancouver's ridiculously expensive current D-corp/only 19 mill to sign a lot of players, I wonder if we'll make a pitch. Next to Weber he's my fav. non-Senator dman. Hhhmmm...
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0 #67 chadillac 2012-07-18 07:13
Quoting The Apostle:
Quoting chadillac:


I have to agree 100%. He may not be your favourite top 6 guy, but he is definitely top 6. People seem to realize that this is a 30 team league, so the "he's not top 6", or "not a top 4" argument often falls flat on its face cause people don't consider the facts when making their arguments.

30 team league x 3 forward positions x 2 lines = 144

Foligno was ranked 110th amongst fowards - definitely top 6.

However, you'd want a guy that would help you make the playoffs. 16 teams x 3 forward positions x 2 lines. You want a guy that finishes 96th or higher in production. Foligno just misses, but consider his physical play, and you could make an argument for top 6.



I don't know in which world 30 x 3 x 2 = 144 but whatever.

I don't think you can be that definite or precise by using stats alone. II could happily counter with the information that Foligno's average TOI last sesason ranked 232nd in the league amongst forwards.

That doesn't take into account things like PK or PP of course which is why it's a misleading stat especially when another stat is that he was the 6th ranked senator forward in average TOI.

Foligno saw plenty of top 6 time and plenty of 3rd line time which indicates to me he wasn't a lock in the top 6 on the senators.

I think he has potential to be a day in/day out top 6 player, but he has a better chance of doing that long term somewhere other than Ottawa.

I guess I was between calculations... it happens. 16 x 3 x 3 = 144. I think I was about to argue he's a third liner by stats.
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0 #68 Tookie 2012-07-18 07:50
Quoting Sensnation:
Quoting Tookie:
Quoting RUSHRLZ:

I love our team, I love the work ethic, last year was a fantastically fun roller coaster... and I agree with Tom in that we probably overachieved a bit.


A bit...it was the main theme in our entire season.

Smith, Greening, Foligno, Karlsson, Anderson and even Alfie as a 39 year old scoring 27 goals...They all overachieved and I can bet you they wont have the same season again.


Bet? Haha Tookie, no ones going to bet with you after you backed out of having to fulfill your entire losing responsibilities.


The bet was until the draft...which I did and the majority gave me blessing to remove it anyways.
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0 #69 Tookie 2012-07-18 07:52
Quoting freebird:
Quoting Tookie:



Dang, lots of people still hating on Heatley, give it a rest folks, he's been gone for 2 years now, get over it already.


This is something that a welcher would say.


This is something that a FREEBIRD would say.
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-1 #70 Tookie 2012-07-18 07:56
Quoting Spinorama:

I'll bet with Tookster !! Bring it !! Our beloved Sens will have a better year than last year ! What do you want to bet Tooks !?


I aint betting until pre-season is over, I dont want to repeat what happened last year. I was wrong once and it cost me my name for half a year, lol.

I'll take bets (name changes or anything else creative) after the pre-season, depending on what I see. (might just make bets to keep the hate going :))
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+1 #71 Tookie 2012-07-18 07:58
Quoting Hax:
Quoting RUSHRLZ:
Typical Tookie post, especially considering their achievements lost you a bet. Funny how you already are saying "and I can bet you they won't have the same season again". LOL.


While I agree all these guys are capable of repeating or even improving on their great years, the fact remains that we can't expect each and every one of them to do so. Some amount of "normalization" is to be expected. Tookie is of course putting the most glass-half-empty spin on it, but essentially he's right in that we aren't likely to see *all* of these guys repeat/improve.

I think some will but a couple probably won't for various reasons. I think on paper our team is a tiny bit better than last year, but in the end our record might be a bit less due to not as many guys having peak years.

Of course, we could have won 5-10 more games last year without playing much better overall (a lucky bounce here and there etc) so I fully expect/hope that we'll still be very much in the hunt for the playoffs.


Ya, what he said, I just say it with less words..bang on Hax
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0 #72 Alcatraz 2012-07-18 08:37
Pretty much Tookie and Hax

Regression towards the mean is standard and without going all Yost on you guys its pretty normal to see players regress back to the average. For example look out for Everle this year. Its been well documented how high his shooting percentage is. Unless he establishes himself as a Stamkos like scorer he will regress this year. Basically any goal that was scored while he was on the ice he got a point. easy math says you have a 3/5 chance, his stats showed more like 4.5/5 chance..anyways

Sens players with either a U or D next to their name in terms of how their points wiill trend (Up/Down)

Latendresse(U from Foligno)-Spezza (U)-Silf(U from Butler)
MM9(D)-Turris(U)-Alfie(D)
Greening(D)-Regin(U from Konopka)-Neil(U)
O'Brien(U)-Smith(D)-Condra(U)

Karlsson(D)-Methot(D from Kuba)
Cowen(U)-Gonchar(U)
Phillips(U)-Boro(U from Carkner)

Looking at it this way the real only contributors from last year that I see regressing will be MM9, Alfie, karlsson and Smith. All our new additions minus Methot should be a positive statsitical upgrade over their replacement.
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+1 #73 Hax 2012-07-18 08:54
Quoting Alcatraz:
Pretty much Tookie and Hax

Regression towards the mean is standard and without going all Yost on you guys its pretty normal to see players regress back to the average. For example look out for Everle this year. Its been well documented how high his shooting percentage is. Unless he establishes himself as a Stamkos like scorer he will regress this year. Basically any goal that was scored while he was on the ice he got a point. easy math says you have a 3/5 chance, his stats showed more like 4.5/5 chance..anyways

Sens players with either a U or D next to their name in terms of how their points wiill trend (Up/Down)

Latendresse(U from Foligno)-Spezza(U)-Silf(U from Butler)
MM9(D)-Turris(U)-Alfie(D)
Greening(D)-Regin(U from Konopka)-Neil(U)
O'Brien(U)-Smith(D)-Condra(U)

Karlsson(D)-Methot(D from Kuba)
Cowen(U)-Gonchar(U)
Phillips(U)-Boro(U from Carkner)

Looking at it this way the real only contributors from last year that I see regressing will be MM9, Alfie, karlsson and Smith. All our new additions minus Methot should be a positive statsitical upgrade over their replacement.


Not sure if Gonchar or Neil will be U's and GL needs to stay healthy to have a shot at bringing more than Foligno. But otherwise, a pretty decent analysis.
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0 #74 Tcharger 2012-07-18 08:54
Makes sense Although I don't see Neil getting more points seeing as he will have am increased shit disturbing role
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0 #75 chadillac 2012-07-18 09:06
I don't have the stats in front of me, but I can see why Condra will be an "up". That guy was snake-bitten last year. He can only go up.
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0 #76 Tookie 2012-07-18 09:29
Quoting Hax:

Not sure if Gonchar or Neil will be U's and GL needs to stay healthy to have a shot at bringing more than Foligno. But otherwise, a pretty decent analysis.


In my opinion guys who had big years wont do it again. I only see Spezza putting up another 80+ point season. Michalek has a good chance of hitting 30 goals but is a huge question mark. Alfie will have a dip in points, Turris will put up around 50pts (hopefully) Latendresse and Silfverberg we cant count on much, maybe 30-40 pts if no injuries occur. Greening, Condra, Smith will all have lower pts totals than last year. Also Karlsson will have a drop in pts, Methot wont put up as many as Kuba either.
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0 #77 AlfieforMayor11 2012-07-18 09:32
Tookie you're hilarious. You have such a massive hard-on for the Spezz. If Karlssons point totals dip then expect Spezza's to as well. They get a ton of points off of eachother.
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+3 #78 Alcatraz 2012-07-18 09:38
Quoting AlfieforMayor11:
Tookie you're hilarious. You have such a massive hard-on for the Spezz. If Karlssons point totals dip then expect Spezza's to as well. They get a ton of points off of eachother.


Although I'm not defending Tookie, I agree in his assessment that Spezza can maintain a ppg pace where as it will be difficult for karlsson to duplicate that

Often Karlsson will start a breakout, but may be "3rd" assist guy.

If Silf gels with Spezza and/or Latendresse can bury a few I think Spezza could stay at ppg.

Defensively its so hard to be a ppg, and thats why Karlsson was so damn impressive last year
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+2 #79 boom 2012-07-18 09:39
Quoting Tookie:
Quoting Hax:

Not sure if Gonchar or Neil will be U's and GL needs to stay healthy to have a shot at bringing more than Foligno. But otherwise, a pretty decent analysis.


In my opinion guys who had big years wont do it again. I only see Spezza putting up another 80+ point season. Michalek has a good chance of hitting 30 goals but is a huge question mark. Alfie will have a dip in points, Turris will put up around 50pts (hopefully) Latendresse and Silfverberg we cant count on much, maybe 30-40 pts if no injuries occur. Greening, Condra, Smith will all have lower pts totals than last year. Also Karlsson will have a drop in pts, Methot wont put up as many as Kuba either.


Greening just completed his first full season, as did Condra.

Smith just completed his 2nd full season.

Yet you can say, for sure, that they all peaked?

Wow, you're good.
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+2 #80 Alcatraz 2012-07-18 10:19
Quoting boom:
Quoting Tookie:
Quoting Hax:

Not sure if Gonchar or Neil will be U's and GL needs to stay healthy to have a shot at bringing more than Foligno. But otherwise, a pretty decent analysis.


In my opinion guys who had big years wont do it again. I only see Spezza putting up another 80+ point season. Michalek has a good chance of hitting 30 goals but is a huge question mark. Alfie will have a dip in points, Turris will put up around 50pts (hopefully) Latendresse and Silfverberg we cant count on much, maybe 30-40 pts if no injuries occur. Greening, Condra, Smith will all have lower pts totals than last year. Also Karlsson will have a drop in pts, Methot wont put up as many as Kuba either.


Greening just completed his first full season, as did Condra.

Smith just completed his 2nd full season.

Yet you can say, for sure, that they all peaked?

Wow, you're good.


I would say Condra can improve since he should have had more pts last year. I do not think Greening will score as many as last year since I find it hard to believe he plays as much with Spezza this year

as for Smith its a wildcard

he had two seasons last year. a good one (first half) a horrible one (second half) so tough to tell where he actually is in terms of production
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+1 #81 Hax 2012-07-18 10:19
I think if you consider that Karlsson won't have Kuba and that Spezza will hopefully have a better "other winger" than last year (though maybe not much better) it's reasonable to assume Karlsson might get a few less points and Spezza might get a few more.

I'm hoping that since it looks like we're not going to acquire a top 3 winger to play with Spezza and MM9 that at least we'll end up with someone there as a regular with some success. Even if it's Greening again but he contributes more than last year that should help Spezza - and we have 2-3 better possible options than Greening.
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+1 #82 Tookie 2012-07-18 10:34
Quoting boom:
Greening just completed his first full season, as did Condra.

Smith just completed his 2nd full season.

Yet you can say, for sure, that they all peaked?

Wow, you're good.


You dont have to be a rocket scientist to figure out they are career 3rd liners that had pretty decent year, I said I doubt they have a better year than the last. Especially with demotion and better players coming in taking their minutes.

Its common sense that they will have less pts but still be productive in their role.
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+1 #83 Sandy 2012-07-18 10:34
The up-tempo offense runs through Karlsson & Spezza.

We can expect Karlsson to have a bit of a slow start due to a new D partner and he will be the focus of all the opponents.

But none of us can say at this point in time.. who will do better and who won't.
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0 #84 boom 2012-07-18 10:42
Quoting Sandy:
The up-tempo offense runs through Karlsson & Spezza.

We can expect Karlsson to have a bit of a slow start due to a new D partner and he will be the focus of all the opponents.

But none of us can say at this point in time.. who will do better and who won't.

Thank you Sandy, for a voice of reason. I'm amazed how few admit that...
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+1 #85 The Apostle 2012-07-18 10:56
I will say here and now that Methot, Silfverburg and Latendresse will all beat their current highest sens points totals this season.

I am prepared to bet anything anybody suggests on this fact.
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+1 #86 Hax 2012-07-18 10:59
Quoting Sandy:
But none of us can say at this point in time.. who will do better and who won't.


Of course nobody can predict the future (though Tookie will pretend like everything is a forgone conclusion).

But we're all entitled to offer opinions on who should be expected to improve and who might see a bit of a drop off after somewhat over-achieving last year.
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0 #87 Tookie 2012-07-18 11:05
Quoting The Apostle:
I will say here and now that Methot, Silfverburg and Latendresse will all post their highest sens points totals this season.

I am prepared to bet anything anybody suggests on this fact.


I would take that bet if it wasnt a trick ;)

Actually I might, as I only see Methot and Silfverberg doing better in year 2 or 3 but Latendresse might not be here next year so you could be right on that one :)
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+1 #88 NikoTn 2012-07-18 11:11
Quoting Tookie:
Quoting The Apostle:
I will say here and now that Methot, Silfverburg and Latendresse will all post their highest sens points totals this season.

I am prepared to bet anything anybody suggests on this fact.


I would take that bet if it wasnt a trick ;)

Actually I might, as I only see Methot and Silfverberg doing better in year 2 or 3 but Latendresse might not be here next year so you could be right on that one :)


Me too!!
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+2 #89 The Apostle 2012-07-18 11:15
generally predicitions are for gypsies anyway

also my skilful yet sneaky edit has removed the ambiguity from my suggested non bet
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0 #90 Tookie 2012-07-18 11:17
Quoting The Apostle:
generally predicitions are for gypsies anyway

also my skilful yet sneaky edit has removed the ambiguity from my suggested non bet


Yeah I saw that but what counts is what I "quoted"...
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+1 #91 The Apostle 2012-07-18 11:20
based on what has gone before - we should also agree on what period of whining about the bet afterwards will be allowed
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0 #92 Tookie 2012-07-18 11:24
Quoting The Apostle:
based on what has gone before - we should also agree on what period of whining about the bet afterwards will be allowed


No bets have been made yet, I dont really want to wait 3 years for it to take effect either.

Your off the hook but know you would have gotten owned!
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+1 #93 Alcatraz 2012-07-18 11:27
Well there you have it, a new Chirp/Wisers contest!!

Golfing next summer?

Every person submits a full 25 man roster(includin g scabs/prospects)

All you have to say is whether or not they will outproduce their total from last year. New additions gets compared to replacements

Ie.
Latendresse vs Foligno
Methot vs Kuba
Lundin vs Carkner

Prospects obviously improve

Whoever guesses the most right (up or down) wins!
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+3 #94 The Apostle 2012-07-18 11:29
i am sure you would have used the ambiguity of the original statement to your advantage, but the concept of owning seems extravagant.

Of course the bet would have had to have been properly finalised and I would have removed said ambiguity.

Now let us fast forward a year and please imagine my/your 703 posts about your/my perceived welching on said unenforceable bet.
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0 #95 Tookie 2012-07-18 12:06
Quoting The Apostle:

Now let us fast forward a year and please imagine my/your 703 posts about your/my perceived welching on said unenforceable bet.


No thx...
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+1 #96 Tookie 2012-07-18 12:12
Quoting Alcatraz:
Well there you have it, a new Chirp/Wisers contest!!

Golfing next summer?

Every person submits a full 25 man roster(including scabs/prospects)

All you have to say is whether or not they will outproduce their total from last year. New additions gets compared to replacements


Down, Even, Up.

Silfverberg (D from Greening)-Spezza(U)-MM9(D)
Latendresse(E from Foligno)-Turris(U)-Alfie(D)
Greening(D)-Regin(D from Smith)-Neil(D)
O'Brien(U)-Smith(D)-Condra(E)

Karlsson(D)-Methot(D from Kuba)
Cowen(U)-Gonchar(E)
Phillips(E)-Boro(U from Carkner)
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0 #97 Alcatraz 2012-07-18 12:14
Quoting Tookie:
Quoting Alcatraz:
Well there you have it, a new Chirp/Wisers contest!!

Golfing next summer?

Every person submits a full 25 man roster(including scabs/prospects)

All you have to say is whether or not they will outproduce their total from last year. New additions gets compared to replacements


Down, Even, Up.

Silfverberg (D from Greening)-Spezza(U)-MM9(D)
Latendresse(E from Foligno)-Turris(U)-Alfie(D)
Greening(D)-Regin(D from Smith)-Neil(D)
O'Brien(U)-Smith(D)-Condra(E)

Karlsson(D)-Methot(D from Kuba)
Cowen(U)-Gonchar(E)
Phillips(E)-Boro(U from Carkner)


I forgot about Regin compare him to Konopka

As for prospects don't compare them to current players (ie silf vs greening) that could be the tiebreak. Guess how many pts from a prospect

so

Silf
Stone
MZ
Boro
Gryba etc
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0 #98 Tcharger 2012-07-18 12:19
Silfverberg (U from Greening)-Spezza(U)-MM9(D)
Latendresse(D from Foligno)-Turris(U)-Alfie(D)
Greening(D)-Regin(E from Smith)-Neil(D)
O'Brien(U)-Smith(D)-Condra(E)

Karlsson(Slightly d)-Methot(D from Kuba)
Cowen(U)-Gonchar(E)
Phillips(E)-Boro(U from Carkner)

I doubt Stone sees much time this year(barring injuries he needs another year of development like last year)
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0 #99 MethotToMyMadness 2012-07-18 12:52
Not going to bother with the even, odds aren't good it'll happen. So with just up and down, here is my prediction:

Silfverberg (36)-Spezza(D)-MM9(D)
Latendresse(U from Foligno)-Turris(U)-Alfie(U)
Greening(D)-Regin(U from Konopka)-Neil(D)
O'Brien(U)-Smith(U)-Condra(U)

Karlsson(D)-Methot(D from Kuba)
Cowen(U)-Gonchar(U)
Phillips(U)-Lundin(U from Carkner)
Boro (13 points

edited as mentioned by Alcatraz
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0 #100 Alcatraz 2012-07-18 12:54
Don't predict Silf to Greening

Compare greening to greening
-All rookie we will just "predict" points, and they can be tiebreaks

Also compare Lundin to Carkner and Regin to Konopka

Rookies to predict should be Silf and Boro
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0 #101 MethotToMyMadness 2012-07-18 12:57
I'll probably get harped on my predictions but I'm using the same factors I use each year in my Hockey pools when trying to predict late round sleepers. Who's in a contract year, who has been traded with a fresh start/new linemates. who signed a 1 year and needs to prove themself and who are entering the ever popular 3rd year, where almost all players see an increase in overall point production. This sometimes falls on the 4th year, depending on games played in the 1st year, etc. Like it or hate it, I think I'll be close.
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0 #102 MethotToMyMadness 2012-07-18 13:02
Quoting Alcatraz:
Don't predict Silf to Greening

Compare greening to greening
-All rookie we will just "predict" points, and they can be tiebreaks

Also compare Lundin to Carkner and Regin to Konopka

Rookies to predict should be Silf and Boro


Done - it's been edited
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0 #103 Sandy 2012-07-18 13:03
Quoting Hax:
Quoting Sandy:
But none of us can say at this point in time.. who will do better and who won't.


Of course nobody can predict the future (though Tookie will pretend like everything is a forgone conclusion).

But we're all entitled to offer opinions on who should be expected to improve and who might see a bit of a drop off after somewhat over-achieving last year.


Agreed... and I fully expect Turris to have a very good season.. He has put in the work this summer to date gain 10 lbs of muscle to date. It's obvious he is committed to make an impact on the team this next season.

I like the summer.. but boy I miss hockey...
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+1 #104 Hax 2012-07-18 13:10
Ottawa Senators ‏@NHL_Sens

#Sens sign defenceman Eric Gryba to a two-year, two-way contract: http://ottsens.com/LyrtDM
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0 #105 MethotToMyMadness 2012-07-18 13:14
I like the fact Nathan Lawson was signed by Ottawa. He's more than I expected Ottawa would go after, as I thought they would just fill the position with a peg allowing Lehner to take starting duties in Bingo. While I do see Lehner being the #1, it won't be handed to him, Lawson will make him work hard for it night in and night out. Great signing.
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0 #106 Tcharger 2012-07-18 13:16
Silfverburg will be 40+ points

I'm guessinug 23 goals 20 assists

I want to be more generous but don't think the rest of our team has improved enough. I think he will be right in the mix for the Calder trophy as well. No other rookies will really matter as they will only see significant time if there are injuries
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0 #107 GreeningTheMonster 2012-07-18 13:18
Quoting Hax:
Ottawa Senators ‏@NHL_Sens

#Sens sign defenceman Eric Gryba to a two-year, two-way contract: http://ottsens.com/LyrtDM

Great news
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0 #108 Alcatraz 2012-07-18 13:27
Just reading a sportsnet blog on upcoming 2013 UFA's and it made me chuckle

If Edmonton suck again this year which vets will want to stay? They have two upcoming UFA's ond efense in Whitney and Smid arguably their best dmen

If they walk, that team will never get out of the basement my god

BTW Smid would look good here (oh wait, could have happened haha)
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0 #109 GreeningTheMonster 2012-07-18 13:32
@NHL_Sens:
The #Sens have re-signed forward Jim O'Brien to a two-year contract: http://t.co/PIzSu252
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0 #110 Alcatraz 2012-07-18 13:33
delete
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0 #111 Hax 2012-07-18 13:33
new post up
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