I thought it might be interesting to share some of the trends that came up after sorting through nearly 150 predictions. Keep in mind; I haven’t had a chance to check my junk mail to see if there are more in there.
- The earliest date a contract gets done? Tomorrow. The latest? More than three months from now (August 29).
- The shortest term predicted was two years. The longest came in at ten years with majority of you predicting five or six years.
- The smallest total value was $13,000,000 while the biggest number came in at a whopping $65,000,000. Gotta think that number would make Eugene a little uneasy!
- The majority of entries have the date signed coming at some point in June. That makes sense as the Sens have to be at least a little bit concerned about the possibility of an offer sheet. The most common date predicted- June 28, 2012. I’ll be sure to be ready to post on that day.
- Thanks to the magic of Excel, I was able to calculate the cap hits on each prediction. The smallest came in at $5 million per season while the largest was an astronomical $9.1 million a season. The majority have Karlsson signing for somewhere between $6-$6.5 million a year.
Now that the contest has closed, I encourage you all to share your predictions in the comment section below and perhaps a little explanation on how you landed at that number. It should be interesting to track this contest over the course of the summer.
Thanks again to the good folks at Wisers for providing these excellent prizes. Should the winner choose the round of golf, you can expect a Ryder Cup style showdown against myself and the Wisers Guy with a Texas Mickey of Wisers on the line!
Just edited the comment to add my prediction:
8 Years
52 M total
Signed June 25th
Cap hit 6.5 M
- 6 years
- $37.25 million
- June 29th 2012
- cap hit $6.20 million
I really dont think 5.5 million is enough. I will be SHOCKED if they are able to pull that off.
2 - 4 years
3 - 26.50
year 1 6.00 mil
year 2 6.50 mil
year 3 7.00 mil
year 4 7.00 mil
4 - June 21st
Apparently it may be a useless guess as I was aiming to have him remain a RFA when the next contract is due...but haven't been able to confirm if he becomes UFA at 7 years service or if it is after 7 years service.
I find it really interesting how perceptions of Karlsson's worth have changed over the last 12 months. One of the earlier times this was discussed some (including myself) suggested that he might get Doughty money. This was not a popular suggestion and there was plenty of advice given regarding shaking of heads and to stop drinking kool-aid.
Now it's a slightly different tune. He might not be as good an all round blueliner as Doughty (that's a more controversial topic now and the gap is a LOT closer than it used to be) but it's much easier to say that Karlsson is more important to the senators than Doughty is to LA.
6 years
39M
Signed on June 25th
Cap hit $6.5M
7yrs - $43,750,000 ($6.25mil per) on June 25, 2012.
Although I wouldn't be surprised if it was something like 3yrs at $5.5-$6mil. He'd still be a RFA after that.
30 million
June 29th
why? Cause I'm Slickrick damn it!
thanks Chirp for the contest although I much prefered the Duckhunt for season tickets...on second thought, thanks for not doing that is I spent countless hours walking around aimlessly much like Matt Gilroy. Boom.
-$65 million
-cap hit $6.50 million
-06/05/2012 or 05/31/2012 (birthday present)
everything goes with his number 65
Total Value: $42M
Date signed: June 2nd
Just for fun:
Contract dollars will look something like:
$5M / $5M / $5M / $6M / $6M / $7M / $8M
Mostly because I think that's about right for both sides to feel good about it. Guaranteed $42M for EK when he's about to turn 22 makes the $6M cap hit easier to swallow (I'm sure his agent is thinking higher cap hit) and the $6M per year will (hopefully) very soon look like a bargain to Melnyk/Murray.
And the June 2 date is to leave Murray plenty of time to deal with the other RFAs with "what's left" and also allow time for any UFAs we might be going after to see where our club is headed etc.
Still plenty of time for another Duckhunt type contest. Have something a little different in mind for this one though.
Cap hit of 6.25M/year
Signed on June 21
I see I had the same lenght and was off by 250K with NikoTn. Chirp, how close are any two entries? Any exactly identical?
8 yrs
57 million
7.125 cap hit
Signed June 14th
Likely much higher than what he will sign for but we shall see.
This is exactly what I was thinking of doing before. Except my date would be different. Good luck to you good sir!
227 (66) Hax
220 (60) Misaow
220 (59) Glencho10
219 (62) Bradweiser
218 (62) PaskySensFan
217 (60) DonnyG33
215 (68) acameron56
214 (56) Kratos71
211 (60) sens23
211 (60) Bluenose
I can tell you that six people had the exact same term and dollar amount but with different dates signed. Going to be quite disappointing for five people if that ends up being the right amount.
If NY loses this round I'm still sitting pretty well....I am all NJ/la players and most I look at are NY/la
I golf alone
Nah actually we then go to the person who had the term right and was closest on the dollar amount.
Hahaha! Texas mickey for yourself and the wiser guy. Good luck with that... It is hard enough to finish that with 3 guys in one night.
Edit: I guess nobody said 1 night...
$33 million - cap hit of 5.5
June 28
5 million of it as a signing bonus that can't be clawed back under a new CBA.
3. 26.5 Million
4. July 9, 2012 (Don't know what I was thinking there!)
4 yrs
total contract $25 mil
cap hit $6.25 mil per yr
Signed: July 18/12
Depends on how much of the Wisers they drink before and during play...
40 mill
cap hit of 6.67
9-7-6-6-6-6
3 of the nine in year 1 is signing bonus, then additional 1 mill signing bonus year 2, with basic annual salary simply being 6 per year
Yeah I'm all LA/NYR with one Devil for good luck.
So if NJ wins I'm pretty much toast.
$33.75M
$6.75M per
June 30th
6 yrs
$43.5M
Cap hit of $7.25M per
June 29th
$32.5 million
Signed on June 28.
Cap hit $6.5 million (matching his number).
Makes him an UFA when he's 26, so that's when he can really cash in if he keeps his numbers up.
Reasonable term for the Sens, no huge Bryzgalovian commitment.
I like whiskey.
Very true. We are both average to below average I would say. Shot an 88 on the weekend and was pretty damn excited about it.
a la George Thorogood?
It could have been under 80 if it wasn't for that damn windmill.
They talked to him about the Worlds and playing for Sweden but also about his possible return next season. He really feels that if he cannot contribute in ALL situations, he doesn't know if he'll return. How hard it was not killing penalties, doing it all, the way he used too. Not a bad listen, for anyone who didn't hear it, check it out here:
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151769631370585
But managing his minutes has benefits for both the team and he himself. It makes him less tired 5 on 5 and on the PP which should increase his effectiveness. Plus, playing other guys on the PK provides them with valuable experience and increases their value to the team.
I want my offensive stars concentrating on even strength hockey and the PP wherever possible.
4 year 4.75 per year + bonusus for achievments,
karlsson has to back up what he did to get his next big payday, doughty has been not worth the big cheese so far and may end up being a big mistake. time will tell, if karlsson can back up his great play he will get 6-7 per year.
I agree, but it sounds like Alfie may not. It may be more about his understanding he may not be needed for all those situations anymore, like they use to rely heavy on. Instead, allow him to focus his time on the 5 on 5 and pp.
I think if he feels he can still contribute to the team in a top 6 role he will be back.*
* If the more important things like family and medical blessing are in place.
BUT i still think that it isn't how he will feel next year that should inform his decision, it's how he thinks he will be feeling in 2 or 3 years. For me the biggest factor is health. I think he looks at players like Kariya, Savard and Pronger and thinks is it worth it - if he chooses to call it quits I'll be pissed but there will be no complaints or second guessing from me.
I'm not convinced that happens though.
Definitely want to get it done before July 1. Mendes just mentioned on twitter that no discussions are currently scheduled but I expect that to change in the near future.
Seems kinda nuts to me that there are no discussions ongoing.
I'm hoping Murray pulls another Runblad style trade. Trade the pick and get an established prospect that is further down the development line.
They've gathered such a crop of talented young forwards already, I find it VERY hard to believe they would turn down offers for the 1st overall and just take him because he's the best player available. In a situation where they are in dire need of NHL ready defense now, why wouldn't you make the move?
Reading Edmonton message boards, fans are crying out saying to trade it, get a top proven D and later pick to snag one of the young stud D like Murray or Reinhart. The best team to trade with would have to be the Blue Jackets, as they are PISSED they didn't get that pick originally. I'm sure they'd make the move if it all worked out.
I think it would be Johnson that Edmonton would be after, he's young, or Nikitin. Either of them would fit the mold they appear to be building. And since CBJ got a 2012 or 13 1st rounder out of that deal with LA, they still have a possible extra pick available if they decided to use it this year.
There are a couple of options for Edmonton. They don't necessarily have to give away the 1st overall pick to Columbus. They can try to part with another forward prospect like Linus Omark to get a quality D-man. I hear that he wants out of Edmonton anyways...
Now maybe Murray makes an offer before the awards that Karlsson's agent likes and feels is worth taking (or maybe they get the feeling that he won't win the Norris).
If you sign Karlsson to a 3 year contract, we keep his RFA rights. There is no reason for us to sign him long term.
My guess is a 3 year contract at around 6 million per. He already stated he wanted to stay and that he would be willing to get that type of term to help out the team.
This is the best scenario for both parties. I have no doubt that this will be the case. Karlsson gets a big raise, and we keep his RFA status at the end of the contract. Win-win.
Anything bigger makes no sense.
If Karlsson says I won't sign anything less than 5 years do we let him walk away because apparently that "makes no sense"?
I would love us to sign Karlsson for 3 years at 6 or 6.5 per but that assumes he's going to keep on getting better and better, he might not. Some kind of longer term sfety net might look quite attractive from Karlsson's point of view.
There is an ideal scenario for the Senators but compromise is often the way you have to go.
If you are so sure that Karlsson wants to stay why not sign him for 7 or 8 years at a lower cap hit.
Even though he had a spectacular year, it was still only one year and the kid is 21.
It would be a win-win for both sides, and would help the team out a lot in the long run. I don't see Karlsson as the type of player who would try to go for the big bucks.
This is the most likely scenario. Signing him long term in fear of losing him? I do not see this happening by any means.
I figured that he's cut from the same cloth as Alfie and won't demand a huge amount of money. He'll put team first by taking a small discount, but still make some decent coin. I'm pretty he's in it to win.
Yak is not the ebst player available, he's the best player BY FAR, as many draft guys have said. he's at the top alone, nobody close to his skills.
Edmonton can always pick him and trade some of their young guys like Paarvi or Gagner for a solid Dman.
I guess that would be a correction on my part, and using the "best player available" term doesn't really apply when you're picking 1st overall. We all know Yak will go 1st, it just depends who picks first. Anyway, I think you knew what I was getting at. ;)
And yeah, they could move others, but that wouldn't get them a top D pick in this draft, which I think is something they may be after.
So if a short deal is a huge win for us isn't it (by definition) a bad idea for Karlsson and his agent?
If he's willing to sign a 3-year deal now it's because he hopes that the next RFA deal will be even richer. If you sign him for 3yrs $18M now and end up having to sign him for $9M per year or whatever the going rate is at the time for a Norris defenseman then it will look like a real bad idea in hindsight won't it?
There's simply no black-and-white about this. It (like all other contracts, even for players older than 21) is a huge gamble for both sides.
Hmmm, Linus Omark is someone I thought the Sens should have went after, with the sweden connection we have. He's not the biggest guy, but he'd be a critical part of helping a team win in shootouts and we all know how much those extra points count come playoff time.
So what's our motivation for it then? Just to keep him RFA instead of UFA with essentially zero chance of getting him cheaper at the end?
I'd rather risk negotiating with him as a pending UFA and sign him for 7 years at $6M per than sign him for only 3 years at the same $6M only to have to (likely) pay him more for another 4 years the next time he's an RFA.
I just don't see him being desperate to test the free agent market when his UFA time comes - and if he is for some reason then let him as I wouldn't want someone here who doesn't want to be here.
I know it's not quite that simple, but you get my meaning.
I don't see how anyone can think he'll get a 7-8 year contract at over 6. People tend to forget he's 21 and has one great year under his belt.
Once the shorter contract ends, then we could sign him to a longer contract with a more reasonable amount per year.
I don't see how this is a bad deal for Karlsson.
Anyways, that's my 2 cents! That's the most likely scenario in my opinion.
Hax nailed it. Ottawa would benefit from a longer, steady term. Not having to pay upwards of 8 or 9 later on. And EK would benefit the short. It's pretty simple to see.
Really he has only had one good season(as much as I love him) it isn't unheard of or even uncommon for defenders to not live up to the hype.
Ocher-if he wants...sorry phone is being retarded...put q new dictionary ans it sucks
Well I can see EK wanting a bit longer deal too.
IMO if EK's camp were to be 100% selfish and greedy they'd want 4 years and as much money as possible (like $32M). He'd end the contract already rich and headed to UFA at the ripe old age of 26.
Murray's best deal is whatever the lowest cap is for the longest. Murray would (I think) jump at 10 years $50M. There is some risk if EK ends up as a bust or something but I think we all agree it's not likely that he'd be a bust - just a question of exactly how good he gets/stays.
So both are extreme examples but I don't think either party really would want a 3 year deal or shorter. Unless they can't agree on the terms of a longer deal of course.
It wouldn't be a large contract now (short term) and an even larger contract afterwards (longer term). That would make even less sense, since like you said you would just sign him to a long contract now.
Karlsson doesn't hold all the card at the moment, which is the whole point of being an RFA.
I just can't think of any scenario where we sign him for three years now (if he'd agree, which he won't) and then don't end up giving him a raise in 3 years time. RFA or not.
Having him as an RFA vs UFA is a small advantage but it's not worth the risk of owing him a massive raise if he wins another Norris in that short time.
It's been said before that he would be willing to make a deal to help the team in the long run (remind you of someone?).
He really doesn't struck me as the greedy type. Could be wrong but I've got a good feeling the contract will favour both parties.
I'm not saying Karlsson is greedy (he doesn't strike me that way either). But it's one thing to "not be greedy" and another to ask him "Hey can we just sign a three year deal so we have you by the balls again next time?" and expect him to go along with it.
I don't know where exactly "it's been said before" so maybe he specifically said he'd be willing to sign a three year deal and postpone his UFA eligibility - if he did say that then I guess I'm wrong.
But if Murray offers 3 years I am certain EK's agent will counter with a 4 year deal.
45 million
June 15 (figured they'd sign him before he potentially wins the norris and price could go up)
i have a feeling on whoever columbus picks will not report to training camp, its been awhile since a player did that but i honestly see columbus as the black hole of the hockey world.
baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaammmmmmmmmmmmm!! :)
Then sign him longer term to lower the cap hit when the Sens need the room.
But if they go longer now... and they 'buy years' of his UFA status.. that will up the dollar value.
Will be interesting indeed.
Oh by the way... Spezza won the showdown against Skinner... It was close... Yeah Jason....
6 years 30 mil
could be way off but a shot in the dark.
giving it more thought I think I am way low, gonchar even makes more
31.25 million
June 19th (I meant for after the awards, but I guess thats before...damn).
Remember Game 6... up 1-0 in the game, up 3-2 in the series, on the PP and Michalek gets a penalty behind the ranger net
Rangers score , momentum lost game over, series over
FREEBIRD !
Mine was very similar. 6 years at 5.83 mil per year (35 mil total) and being signed the week after the draft.
1st line
Jagr - Spezza - Michalek
2nd line
Silfverberg - Turris - Alfie
That goes against my "no geezers" rule.
Seriously ... a guy like Jagr is only valuable once the rebuild is complete and we're ready to "make a run". And even then that's only if we don't already have a great top 6 through the rebuild.
It's really more sad than funny actually. I pity people like that - their lives must be so empty.
I think it was the Foligno penalty-- then the Silfverberg penalty -- both crap calls.. that put the Sens down 5 on 3 -- that resulted in a Rangers goal.. and they won the game by one goal. The Foligno penalty was based on his reputation (he was told that) and not on the play. Silfverberg's was just crap.
It was reported by Chirp, I think, that both refs got blasted after the game by the ref in charge over how they called the game. I think that was the last game they did in the playoffs. I don't believe Peel did another game...
Almost to the end of the season... Love the summer but patiently waiting for Sept...
4 year contract worth 22 mil front loaded
that would be a 5.5 mil cap hit
year 1 - 10 mil
year 2 - 7 mil
year 3 - 3 mil
year 4 - 2 mil
Ottawa will get this done in July so I will call for July 12th
I think it is a fair contract for both sides as then Ottawa is not stuck with a huge contract to account for on the book like a 12 year and Karlsson still has a the chance to improve and bank in on the big long term contract at the end of this one.
Actually he would be a UFA in four years, so I guessed he would sign for three years at 7 million/ year.
In 2 years, Phillips contract & Neil contracts will be off the book.
One super season means nothing. The guy can get hurt (which can happen to anyone) but also he shouldn't be compared to Doughty.
At most 2 year contract at $11M with a $5.5M cap hit. Let him earn with more games and age.
If he is not interested, then I will even trade him along with our 3rd rounder for Oilers top pick, Ladislav Smid & Paarjavi. We will have 2 top picks to draft a top 3 forward & a top 4 defensive help.
Also, will tons of cash to sign Garrison, who will replace Karlson. Smid will replace Kuba. May be add another veteran forward or defense.
I'm guessing we've got some archived backup version of the site for now? Hopefully just a temporary solution?
How about no way... Trade Karlsson? Never...
Are you seriously saying trade top end talent and fill it in with depth players and unproven prospects who may never work out in the NHL? WOW!
Is tonight the final NHL hockey game until whenever? Can we all pray it is October?
Im gonna go and say NJ wins this one....they have to win 1...right?
Quick has to lose eventually, guy is on a monstrous run!
Cunneyworth was treated like crap by the Habs.
With Luke Richardson in Binghamton do the Sens need another 'coach' to work with the Sens D and also the injured recovering players like Luke did? Cunneyworth would be a great option.
What do you mean by that ???