A few wins down the stretch have hurt the Sens chances at landing the top pick tonight but hopefully the Hockey Gods are looking out for us. Among the bottom five teams, Ottawa was the only one that played even close to competent hockey down the stretch so hopefully that effort is rewarded tonight.
Sens GM Bryan Murray will be in attendance for the draw.
I passed this along yesterday but thought I would share it again today. Steve Lloyd of the Team 1200 has done an excellent job breaking down the possibilities tonight. An excerpt from his Healthy Scratches blog shows you exactly what to watch for tonight...
Here's a look at what Sens fan should watch for tonight:
"If Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly starts the show by revealing the 5th pick belongs to Boston(via Toronto), feel free to kick in your TV, as history will have been made by the 22nd place team winning the lottery. The highest seeded team to ever win. Meaning, the Sens will have definitely slipped to 6th and the rest of the show has been ruined, as we will know the other teams will stay in their respective top four positions.
If it's revealed Ottawa has retained the 5th pick, then we know one of the teams 17-21 or 27-30 has won the lottery.
If it is revealed that the Islanders have secured the 5th pick, then it's gets fun for Sens fans, if only for a moment.
4th pick - if it's New Jersey, Ottawa picks 6th. If it's Florida, the game is still afoot
3rd Pick - if it's Columbus, Ottawa picks 6th. If it's Colorado, keep playing along.
From here, Bill Daly will jump ahead and reveal the top pick. If it's Ottawa, well, you know, Sens fans are happy. If it's Edmonton, that means Atlanta has won the lottery, jumping from 6th to 2nd. The Sens will pick 6th."
http://healthyscratches.blogspot.com/
A reminder that the live blog gets started at 7:30 PM tonight. Hope to see some of you there!
Feelin lucky Sens fans!
Honeslty I think we will stay at 5th and pick the best available which is sad when you think we had 1st to 3rd just a month ago...
First pick:
1.RNH (if we win the lotto)
2.Strome
3.Huberdeau
4.Couturier (If strome and huberdeau are gone at our pick but SC isn't)
Second Pick: (NSH)
1.Baertschi
2.Peumpel
3.Zibanejad
4.Beaulieu
5.Phillips
Our second rounder:
1.Rattie
2.Prince
3.Ambroz
4.Musil
And we must draft David Honzik out of Victoriaville, this guy has been amazing all year and I was stunned when I saw him play. He has some really high-end goaltending potential.
Dropping out of the top 3 isn't a disaster but there is a definite difference in picking top 3 and picking 4-6, you considerably reduce your chances of getting that franchise defining player.
I'm not saying that we won't be picking a good player if we pick at 5 or 6 and I think we are lucky that there seems to be no forward who is clearly miles better than 2 or 3 others. I doubt we are missing out on a Crosby or Ovechkin.
Dude they've won it twice (Rick Nash and Fleury) in a row only to trade it away, the GM back then was a complete idiot!
Unfortunately I think Clouston not being a good communicator extended itself to dealing with refs. We always seemed to be at odds with the them and were tagged with the label 'whiners' at one point. Having watched every game I am not sure the discrepancy in power plays was warranted by play on the ice.
there may not be a clear #1 but there is for sure a clear top 3.
RNH
Larsson
Landeskog
The rest of the field could be paired any other way but these 3 are locked in. And I think it was a BIG mistake getting wins at the end of an abysmal season. I think missing out on either of these 3 guys will hurt us down the road in what we could of had.
As long as we get Strome, Rakell, Prince, I'll be happy!
Phew
I hope Mike Hoffman has a really good camp, I don't think he really had a good 1st season in the AHL, he was even demoted to Elmira. Huberdeau and Hoffman played together in Saint Johns a year ago, although I'm not sure if they played together. Landeskog is a huge Sens fan, and is one of the (if not the) best 2 way players in the top 10. Larsson would probably look dynamite with Rundblad and or Karlsson in 2 or 3 years. But as I said I think he stays in Sweden another year.
With Rundblad coming in does the D look kind of like this?
Gonchar Rundblad
Karlsson Kuba
Phillips Cowen???
I don't think Murray acquires or signs a top 4 D for next year. No need right?
I'm looking forward to a coach who has a cup ring and at least 3-5 years of NHL experience. Although I don't think I'd have a problem with Kirk Muller. I think Clouston FLATOUT is an AHL coach, nothing more, and if he were fired in Oct/Nov things would have been different.
I think you may be right.
LOTTO SIMULATORRRRRRR RRRRR
First time I checked that out the other day *WHAM* Sens won. Let's hope it's an omen!
Well from what I can see, its would be down to 4 coaches;
Bob Hartley - 2001 Stanley Cup Winner
Michel Therrien - 2008 Cup finalist
Andy Murray/Ken Hitchcock - squeezed playoff appearances out of mediocre teams in St. Louis and Columbus.
With our hopeful Top 5 Pick (we get one of)
- C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
- LW Gabriel Landeskog
- C Jonathan Huberdeau
- C Sean Couturier
- C Ryan Strome
and with our Second First Round Pick (Nashville)
- RW Ty Rattie
- LW Brandon Saad
- RW Tyler Biggs
- C Mika Zibanejad
My Personal Favorites
Gabriel Landeskog & Ty Rattie
I too have been thinking about our logjam on the backend.
I was thinking something simlar, although I really think they'll either buy Kuba out or throw him on waivers, with so many available dmen, can't see the coaching staff being as patient with him as they were this year.
Gonchar-Cowan
Karlsson-Runbland
Philipps-Lee
Carks/Kuba
Lee has really impressed me with Philly as his partner. He's allowed to play his game as a shutdown guy. We forget Lee is still so young, maybe we were all a little hard on the guy because we all wanted him to be offensive.
Either way, love our depth.
There is also John Muckler :))
I like Bob Hartley idea. Stanley Cup + 3 Conference Finals with Colorado in 4 years. Where is he now? In Europe somewhere?
- RW Ty Rattie
- LW Brandon Saad
- RW Tyler Biggs
- C Mika Zibanejad
Theses guys are nowhere near our NSH pick, the only way we get close to 15th is if all lower seeds advance in the playoffs. Aint gonna happen, only upset I see happening is Chicago ousting Vancouver but that to me aint a upset.
I wound up getting the Avalanche twice before the Sens came up. I had to refresh 6 more times before it changed to Edmonton.
Does anybody know why if the last case happens in Steve Lloyd's breakdown it would automatically be Atlanta that would be the 2nd spot? Can Ottawa not move from 5th to 2nd? Or are the scenarios only: you move up 5 spots, stay in your current position or drop back 1?
Spezza has matured in to a leader and on-ice/locker room leader, Karlsson is rounding out, our call-ups (Greening, Butler, etc.) played well down the stretch, zero-risk signee in Da Costa with huge upside, and Cowen, Rundblad, and Petersson waiting in the wings. Add in 12 draft picks (with one likely in the top five) in St. Paul and we're looking at a contender in a year or two.
David Rundblad w/ Karlsson or Gonchar
Erik Karlsson w/ Rundblad or Gonchar
Chris Phillips w/ Lee or Cowen
Sergei Gonchar w/ Karlsson or Rundblad
Filip Kuba w/ Karlsson
Brian Lee w/ Phillips
Matt Carkner w/ Gonchar
That being said, the one's with limited partners would be best on waivers or healthy Scratches if I was behind this bench I'd put:
Rundblad - Karlsson
Phillips - Cowen
Kuba - Gonchar
Lee trades with Cowen or Phillips (due to injuries or Cowen sent down 'AHL')
Matt Carkner for a 6th to a bottom 5 team.
1st try atlanta
2nd columbus
3rd nyi
4th edmonton
5th ottawa
hope we get it!
thanks johne for the draft simulator on the edmonton site
hows your luck going??
You really think the Hawks have a chance? I see that is probably being the most lopsided first round matchup other than maybe the Caps series. Canucks should be able to crush Chicago.
I would say that Kuba will be gone in the offseason. I'm sure he'll either be traded or bought out. So I would move Lee into his spot and have him alternate with Carkner because we do need some toughness on our D.
we just need this team to work. if we need toughness just ring the Bell i'm sure Neil, Smith, Winchester could fit the bill
Hartley has been passed over for every coaching job in the last three years. There has to be a reason (or reasons) for that. The "unfortunate" part is for the Swiss team that hired him.
Runblad Karlsson
Phillips Cowen shut-down love this defence
kuba traded at draft ..Lee 7th dmen
Hope the sens move up !!!
I know there is very little chance of this happening, but if San Jose can somehow get eliminated 1st round this year that would make 3 years in a row they have led their division but failed in playoffs (2 first round exits).
Would be great if Todd McLellan got the boot and Ottawa could sign him. He's got an outstanding coacing record, and has all the accolades to go with it (except for a stanley cup, unless he won one as an assistant coach in DET..not sure)
I really don't see SJ firing him, but with an underachieving 8million dollar star winger, and another poor playoff showing, anything can happen...
Ruff would be sweet too.
This will ice the shitiest of seasons
Bruce is a terrible idea. Last years playoffs should tell you why. He never adjusted his coaching and lost to mtl. If he would have coached in that series it would have been a much different playoff storyline
My vote is for Landeskog and that monster kid who's name escapes me, but he is 6'7" and weighs 245lbs and can skate.
same here first try and it was Ottawa
I hope he's considered
Jamieson Oleksiak
For some reason the Canucks always choke against Chicago, it's all in their heads man....I also predict Canucks out in Round 1
I got Ottawa first overall first try. Sweet.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Musil and Beaulieu are both projected to go higher than where you have them. Still, nice lists. I trust Murray and our scouting staff.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WO4tIrjBDkk
Please Comment and watch it is what should be shown on the big screen next year before every sens game pump up the crowd and players......
More importantly, everyone here needs to make sure they get out and cast their vote on May 2nd.
Democracy has been hard-won by previous generations. The best way to protect it is for all of us to exercise our rights and to make sure we use our vote.
Quoting DemocracyTrumpsHocke:
Why is everyone high on DeBoer? I'm not disagreeing, would just like to know. I don't hold losing as a panthers coach against anyone, but it's not like he improved them. I though people wanted a more seasoned NHL coach? Hell, Clouston has almost as much NHL experience as DoBoer! Just wondering.
@ 383 - Right on about Lee. I, like many others, saw him struggle initially because he couldn't keep up and was forced to take bad penalties. Instead of going of the wall at being benched for so long, he took it like a pro and seems to have matured. He looks to be slowly but surely improving as an all-around defender, which is something we don't really have.
You also forgot Wacey Hamilton who was recently signed as a UFA from the WHL.
There's more corruption in Democracy than the NHL, I'll stick with watching the draft lottery thank you very much!
Problem is - Edmonton can pick no worse than #2..lucky them.
I don't really know how they 'choose' the balls... but how can they not be selected to pick 2nd, 3rd, or 4th? I just don't get it.. or am I being dense today.
Murray will try whatever he can to move up in the draft to pick Landeskog if that is who he really wants... but the team in that position would have to agree to that trade.
Question is what would Murray have to add to their 1st pick to move up? And would that take away something they could add to the Nashville pick to move up from there.
Another question, Ottawa got one of Chicago's 2nd rd picks which I think were Atlanta's, Calgary's & Chicago's own.. whichever was the last pick, correct? So I guess it is Chicago's pick they get.. so let's hope Vancouver beats them.
You can only move back one spot in the draft, or up 4 if you win. There's no moving up 2 or 3 spots...
That's why some of us have PVR's. Now please stick to hockey on this site.
Man they are desperate, lol
Quoting Sens Fan That Likes Beer:
Everyone is giving this guy shit, which is insane. The truth is that Democracy and hockey are equally important and I wouldn't want to be without either.
I find it strange that people so passionate about hockey don't care about government enough to watch a debate. It's funny that we can tolerate so much as fans (GM/Owner/Coach ing decision we don't agree with, players we dislike, not making the playoffs, rebuilding, losing more than the Leafs, shall I go on? :D), yet people use any excuse to not watch stuff that really affects their country.
I'm excited for the results, but people watching the 30 min pre-show - that is ridiculous! I love hockey and my Sens and I will be watching the debate.
Rant OVER!
theres only 1 draw. the team that wins moves up 4 spots.
For Ottawa:
Ottawa wins - move up to first
team ranked 1-4 wins - our pick stays the same (5th)
team ranked 6-9 wins - move back one (6th)
team ranked 10-30 wins - stays the same (5th)
You were so close. Only teams that didn't make the playoffs are in the lottery. 10th to 14th, we stay at 5th.
I know those are the rules -- move up 4, stay or move back 1.. but why? I guess I would have to know HOW the selections are made that would block the Sens from not picking 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.
Thank you Conor -- Okay, I think I get it.. just dense I guess. I assumed there was more than just one ball selected.
Everyone outside the playoffs is seeded where they finish in points.
Then 1 pick is made -- and whoever that pick is.. moves up 4 spots... thanks again.. that basically describes it.
Each actually very simple.. but again I assumed more than 1 ball was selected. That's what confused me.
Completely agree. Fully intend on watching both. Preaching to a difficult audience here but good on ya. Tonight's debate is extremely important and a great chance for people to get informed about the issues.
Sandy,
edit: ok, glad I could help
Sandy, they literally only pick ONE ball out, that's the whole lottery. Whatever team is on that ball moves up 4 spots in the draft, or less if they're already closer to #1 than that.
Everyone ahead of the winner (in the original order based on the standings), naturally, has to shift down a spot to make room for the team who wins.
That's it. That's the whole premise of the lotto.
Somehow, there is going to be a big bloated TV special just for them to draw one ball out of a vat of balls and have one team move up (or stay where they are if its Edmonton).
Funny, huh?
Also, based on the fact they moved the French debate for the hockey game, it's clear hockey in fact trumps democracy
That would actually be a lot more interesting, if every team outside the playoffs had their spot determined by lotto according to the percentage chances listed. You would always have that outside chance at ending up with a top pick even as a 9th-10th place team.
There is only one draw. One team moves up, or the last place team wins and then it's over. There isn't a draw for each pick.
Here's an interesting list of winners of the lottery:
1995 - LA (was 7th, moved to 3rd; Ottawa retained 1st)
1996 - Ottawa (retained 1st overall pick)
1997 - Boston (retained 1st overall pick)
1998 - Tampa Bay (was 3rd, moved to 1st)*
1999 - CHI (was 8th, moved to 4th; Tampa Bay retained 1st)
2000 - NY Islanders (was 5th, moved to 1st)
2001 - Atlanta (was 3rd, moved to 1st)
2002 - Florida (was 3rd, moved to 1st)
2003 - Florida (was 4th, moved to 1st
2004 - Washington (was 3rd, moved to 1st)
2005 - Pittsburgh (all 30 teams had a chance at #1)
2006 - St. Louis (retained 1st overall pick)
2007 - Chicago (was 5th, moved to 1st)
2008 - Tampa Bay (retained 1st overall pick)
Unfortunately, the intent of democracy as a premise has never been achieved anywhere, and until we have at LEAST 4 parties with the size and scope and voter pull of the Tories and Liberals, instead of just bouncing back and forth between the two, we aren't really accomplishing anything.
They actually draw more than one ball, its just like the lottery. each team is given a proportional number of 'tickets' with different combinations on them. if the numbers drawn match you ticket, you win.
theres actually a 0.1% chance nobody wins, and they'd have to do it over again.
its not a giant vat of balls with team logo's on it, even if they present it that way.
People don't like being told what to do, this is a democracy after all.
Well, besides that Tyrant guy.
I'll be watching tsn
good to know, hey Mclovin are we going drinking tonight?
Rundblad had an assist today and +1 with 2 shots.
As for anyone who thinks watching a debate is important, I ask that you please take note of all stances taken, promises made, and intents put forward in that debate of yours, and then compare them to what has happened at the end of the next term for the winner. If even 20% of what they state in their debate holds true, I'd be very surprised. And that goes for both the liberals and the Tories.
I guess that's what you get when your NHL team is in Ottawa. How sad is it we are discussing an election debate and not playoff hockey right now :(
a minority governments can't be judged soley on completing goals it puts forward. their hands are tied and they can't get much done. the stalemate has lasted too long. i don't trust the nazi leberal leader and its too bad ndp can't get a solid vote. i'm staying with who i voted for before.
Go Sens
Debate I would rather watch paint dry, our government is an embarassment to the country.
Fuck the elections, doesnt matter who you put up there, they are all lying to get your vote. I dont vote for liars and corrupted douchebags!
I take care of my own family with the contacts and people I trust and get things done my own way, I dont wait hand and foot on lying sacks of shit!
Back to hockey, Crawford doesn't interest me much. Him and Murray together would be the most annoying sounding combination in the league too.
Having said all that, I'm not watching either of them.
Nashville's in the playoffs- therefore not in the lottery.
How hilarious is it that this lottery simulator is on the OILERS webpage??? Too funny.
They would not be in it, I believe. It's only for those teams that don't make the playoffs... but again I could be absolutely wrong.
You are correct
only if you have a copcar and some Goldslick
I like strome too but we may not have to trade down to grab him. In the final north american rankings he is at the 8 spot. However who knows where other teams have him on their depth chart. If it's going to be anything like last year who knows what will happen. Who would have guessed that Johansen would go 4th and that fowler would drop as much as he did. This draft will be very hard to predict and it'll be up to murray and his staff to figure out which player certain teams like.
So ya we may not have to trade down to get him. We'll see though it'll be interesting to see how murray handles the draft this year.
I thought it was impossible for the SENS to screw this up, but yet they have...
thanks you learn something every day, never paid much attention to the lottery before so not that familiar.